Holy God, it’s late May.

Perhaps it was that week of 90-degree temperatures in early March, perhaps it was that week of 40-degree temperatures in late April, but whatever the case, my internal season clock is way off.  There is less than a week to the TDA’s opening night of races and it has barely registered with me.  You get lulled into the routine of the off-season, waxing poetic about throwing away knives and online dating on your, uh, demolition derby podcast and the next thing you know, pow, 2012’s First Night is three days away.

The theme of the 2012 year is one of parity.  Thanks to retirements and driver migration, five or six teams seem like they have a legitimate shot at challenging for the title in 2012, compared to only two in 2011.

The two teams hardest hit by roster turnover are undoubtedly the league’s last two champions, Reckoning (2011) and Orange Crush (2010).

Reckoning lost Chris McGuire and Steve Gursky Sr. to Seek-N-Destroy and Steve Gursky Jr. to the Behind the Destruction podcast (available for download on iTunes today).  McGuire brought a bruising crusher savvy and veteran know-how to the team, Gursky Sr., the reigning Mechanic of the Year, is as true a leader and glue guy as there is and Gursky Jr., though he didn’t technically receive it from the league, was the TDA’s MVP last year by a wide margin, winning more races by himself than any other team did on the year.

Orange Crush lost runner extraordinaire, Ryan Bleuer, to The Junkyard Dogs, Sith Lord, Johnny Ryan, to retirement and crusher Pete Ryan to Damage, Inc.  Bleuer has been the league’s best runner (and arguably the best driver overall) over the course of the last five years, and the Ryans provided a true old school, in-your-face menace to the team.

Replacing these drivers isn’t difficult, it’s impossible.  It’s like trying to replace Michael Jordan.  You can’t do it.  As a result of this, Reckoning and Orange Crush are going to take a hit in the standings; neither seems remotely likely to challenge for the title this year.  As the beneficiaries of several of these new roster additions, The Junkyard Dogs and Seek-N-Destroy are poised to leapfrog up in the standings.

Parity.

But the question then becomes: in what order will these teams finish?  Buckle up, it’s time for some pre-season predictions, complete with more wild assertions, bulletin board material, crazy opinions and entertainment value than three episodes of Pardon the Interruption and The 700 Club combined.

8th Place: Damage, Inc

After talking to numerous drivers, team owners and TDA officials, here’s what I know about Damage, Inc: Dave “Repo” Swan and Pete Ryan are on the team.  Some suspect that Swan’s son is on the team too.  Others don’t think this is true.  Some think that Rich Wilson is on the team.  Others don’t think this is true either.  If Swan’s son or Wilson aren’t racing, those last two drivers’ spots are a mystery that may appear on The Mentalist some time soon.

Ryan is a huge upgrade over any non-Swan drivers that Damage, Inc had in 2011, but even so, it’s hard to see Ryan, Swan and two unknown drivers doing anything of note in 2012.  If things go badly on the track for Damage, Inc in May and June, I can see the situation behind-the-scenes getting ugly very quickly.

To the best of my knowledge, Damage, Inc has never made it out of the second round of racing…  which means, if you’re doing the math correctly (and I am, even if you’re not), that Damage, Inc has never been better than .500.  5-5 is the best they could have ever mustered.  Just something to think about.

7th Place: Stranglehold

No one ever talks about rebuilding in the TDA… partially because there’s no draft and partially because entire teams of drivers can up and go to another team mid-season.  That said, Stranglehold looks to be in the process of rebuilding.  They have two young drivers, Michael Noble and Mel Noble Jr., anchoring the team and are filling in the pieces around them.  The Nobles are willing drivers and serious about their sport (and Noble Jr. is actually the bar by which other driver craziness is measured; such is the life of being the only blind demo driver to have participated in a demo A) minus a helmet and B) as a passenger).

Unlike a lot of drivers who seem to switch teams more often than Juan Benequiz though, the Nobles are committed to being on Stranglehold for the long haul.  As such, 2012 should be spent learning the track and teammates’ tendencies, stealing races when they can and identifying their 3rd and 4th drivers for 2013 and beyond.

If you’re looking for a team of loveable, plucky underdogs to root for, look no further than Stranglehold.

6th Place: Mean Green Machine

Quick, who’s the biggest stud in the TDA?  That’s right, it’s Mean Green Machine’s Ryan Decker.  Decker is not only the league’s reigning MVP but when he races, he not only takes out the other teams’ cars but does so before deciding to then win the race.  By the way, there’s no joke in there.  Decker took out two cars in a race last season… and then went on to win the race.

Though it’s not talked of anywhere near as much as Reckoning losing Gursky Jr. and McGuire and Orange Crush losing Bleuer and the Ryans, Mean Green Machine took a pretty big hit this off-season in losing Gerritt “Big Kahuna” Vanderbilt to the Junkyard Dogs.

A quick recap: In 2011, Mean Green Machine opened the season against Stranglehold, a race that somehow went to a countdown.  Mean Green then faced Full Throttle in the second round and lost.  Second Night, they couldn’t even get four cars onto the track for their first round match-up against Orange Crush.  Prior to Third Night, they picked up Vanderbilt.  With this new blood on the team, Mean Green went on to finish the season 5-2 (though they were helped by a scorer’s error Fourth Night that had them winning a race they actually lost).

Pre-Kahuna?  1-2 and not even able to field four cars for a first round race.  Post-Kahuna?  5-2 and winning a night.

Now Mean Green is minus their Kahuna again…

Decker is as great an individual talent as there is in the league, but his teammates John Clemmons, Zac VanAllen and Matt Pierce are going to all have to really step up their games to make sure that they not only don’t repeat the misadventures of the first two nights of last season, but that they also can overcome the loss of Vanderbilt.

5th Place: Seek-N-Destroy

At different times during the writing of this column, I had Seek-N-Destroy finishing in 7th place and another time in 3rd place.  As far as I can see, no team has the potential highs and lows that Seek-N-Destroy does.

For all their efforts, Stranglehold will have a hard time finishing higher than sixth and the Junkyard Dogs will have a hard time placing below third.  Seek-N-Destroy, on the other hand, could legitimately challenge for the title… or they could give Damage, Inc a run for their money for last place.

If Seek-N-Destroy truly attempts to use the six drivers listed on their roster on the TDA site, their season is going to be ugly.  If they instead have Steve Schaefer, Chris McGuire and Steve Gursky Sr. on the field at all times with a fourth driver rotating in amongst the Chad Young/team owner Greg Mesich/Freddie Knight trio, things would be substantially better.

Schaefer is truly a young driver to watch.  He raced hard all year long in 2011 and looks primed to continue his breakout in 2012, especially if he listens to everything that Gursky Sr. tells him.  McGuire is an extremely capable piece and Gursky Sr. proved to be a dependable driver when he raced for Reckoning last year.  Beyond that, there are question marks… particularly if Schaefer and McGuire are not on the track for a given race.

If I was Mesich, I’d be looking hard at some of the other teams with six or more drivers on them and seeing if I could sweet someone into being an official, full time driver on Seek-N-Destroy.

4th Place: Reckoning

Losing Steve Gursky Jr., Steve Gursky Sr. and Chris McGuire over the winter was a huge blow to Reckoning.  The three men are consummate professionals and at the top of their games on the track.  They are being replaced by Nick and Wally Hartung and former TDA Director of Competitions, Dave Hauschild.

The two men who remain on Reckoning from their 2011 Championship season, team owner Brian Anderson and “Speedy” Steve Vollbrecht are as solid a twosome as there is in the league. Nick Hartung seems like a good pickup for Reckoning.  He improved greatly in 2011 and, still very young, has ample room to grow even more in 2012.

The major question about the team surrounds Hauschild and Wally Hartung.  While the two possess decades of demo racing experience, neither man has spent much time on the track in recent years.  Wally Hartung turned out two or three races for Stranglehold last year, but whether he and Hauschild will be able to make it through (or better yet excel during) the season long grind of racing and building cars month in and month out for the entire summer is what will determine Reckoning’s ultimate fate.

3rd Place: Orange Crush

As I mentioned above, Orange Crush lost Ryan Bleuer, Johnny Ryan and Pete Ryan to other teams and (a temporary) retirement in the off-season.  Since they had six drivers last year, this meant that they only had to plug one spot… which they did by bringing back Carl Brouwer.  They also added “Crazy” Art Scarbro to the mix which really does solidify a lot of things.

Tom “Brickman” Lewis, Elmer Fandrey and Ron Tyrakowski have all been racing for a long time and adding Brouwer and Scarbro to this veteran trio gives them a very good foundation.

Fandrey had a very good season in 2012—the kind of season, if this were baseball, that would have people wondering whether he started taking steroids—and if he can continue his string of strong performances, he could very easily be the stud runner that the team had for the last couple years in Bleuer.

One of the true joys of watching Orange Crush race is zeroing in on Fandrey and seeing his race day demeanor.  Along with Ron Johnston and Kyle Shearer, Fandrey is one of my three favorite drivers to watch race.  360 days of the year, he is soft-spoken and genial.  On race days, however, look out!  Fandrey is the most demonstratively competitive guy in the league.  He cares about racing, he cares about winning and he wears these emotions on his sleeve.  And it’s entertaining as hell to watch.

That guy, the one flying around the track flipping off everyone?  That’s Fandrey (or possible Levi Turnbaugh).  That guy stomping around the track after a loss angrily refusing to shake hands with the victors?  Fandrey.  That guys animatedly screaming at the top of his lungs and celebrating like a madman after winning the night?  Fandrey.

How Fandrey hasn’t gotten the nickname of Hulk by now is anyone’s guess.

2nd Place: The Junkyard Dogs

A month or two ago, I picked the Junkyard Dogs to finish the 2012 season in first place.  Since then, the Dogs have added future TDA Hall-of-Famer Ryan Bleuer to their roster… and I have dropped them in the standings.  Yeah…

This is partially because Full Throttle looks great so far and partially because there are so many things up in the air for the Junkyard Dogs that it’s not much of a stretch to see something really weird happening to them.

Consider:

• The team has 53 drivers.  Actually, it has 7.  Ish.  Currently, Bleuer, Gerritt “Big Kahuna” Vanderbilt, Jason Ritacco, Brice Martin, Kyle Shearer, Joe Snow and Rob MacKay (though MacKay is supposedly the team’s backup driver) are on the team’s roster.  I have no idea who the Dogs’ top four drivers are, though from a historical standpoint, Ritacco and Martin appear to be the odd men out, as neither was ever a previous member of JYD.

• If The Dogs go out First Night and dominate, there’s no telling how it might impact their chemistry, as their best driver, Bleuer, may or may not be absent.  If they win the night, they’re going back to the drawing board for Second Night.  If they lose in the first round, there will be even more roster chaos Second Night.

• Together, Vanderbilt and Bleuer make up the best running tandem in the league.  It makes no sense to have a duo as talented and powerful as, uh, Vanderbleuer (Kaheuer? Blanderbilt?) and then sit either one of them.  Will that mean there are four drivers (and MacKay) angling for the final two spots?  If Bleuer and Vanderbilt are rotated out, it makes even less sense.  Why would you go out and get Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade and then sit them at crunch time?  (And yes, in this analogy, every race is crunch time).
The more I think about the perils of the six-man rotation, the less I like it.  The sample size is small—Orange Crush in 2011—but it most certainly didn’t work for them.  Only time will tell if things are different for The Junkyard Dogs.

 1st Place: Full Throttle

Full Throttle returns all four of its drivers from its second place team in 2011, Ron Johnston, Jay VanAllen, Pete Milette Jr. and Levi Turnbaugh.  This core group builds smart, drives smart, races well together, has an immense amount of on-track knowledge and time racing together and there aren’t any question marks about anything.  That all spells one thing: a pre-season designation as the 2012 Championship favorite.  It’s just that simple.

The 2012 season starts Saturday at 7:30PM at the Route 66 Raceway in Joliet, IL.